Frontrunner May Finally Emerge after Florida Primary

We're on the eve of the most important primary to date in the GOP field and here's where we stand. In the last week, this has essentially become a two-man race between Sen John Mccain and former Mass Gov Mitt Romney. There are about 9 or 10 polls out there on the Florida race and almost all of them have it within the margin of error. Rudy Giuliani is a distant third and Huckabee right behind him in fourth.

So what does all this mean? Well, it's been very unpredictable so far, so it stands to reason that there will be a few more twists and turns on the road to the nomination. At the very least, the winner of Florida is likely to be the GOP frontrunner going into Super Tuesday. What's unclear is who that person will be.

At this point, if I had to make a prediction, I'd say the likely winner is Romney, because, with the faltering economy, he seems to have the issues on his side. Though Mccain picked up the endorsements of the Florida GOP establishment, I believe he hurt himself by launching a smear on Romney over the weekend, saying that Romney had previously favored timetables for Iraq withdrawal, as the Democrats had. Even many in the "drive-by" media acknowledged that this was a lie.

Mccain's motive was clear; shift the focus off of the economy, his self-admitted weak point, and back onto his strength, which is the war in Iraq, at least among Republicans. He could have honestly said that he was a stronger supporter of the surge than Romney or any other Republican. By trying to smear Romney like this, I think he lost the respect of many who believed he was an honest, straight talker.

I would not count Rudy out yet in this Florida race. He has been there almost 2 months collecting absentee and early ballots. Word is that roughly 1 million Floridians have already voted, and the Giuliani campaign believes they have a significant lead among those that have already cast their ballots. I have serious doubts as to whether he can sustain that lead in the wake of the latest dismal poll numbers, but, stranger things have happened.

I believe the best result at this point would be a Romney victory. I know I've stated that I believed Mccain is the more electable candidate, but his latest antics make him very hard to like. I will vote for him against Hillary or Obama, but I think the best remaining candidate for the future of the conservative movement is Mitt Romney.

Fred's Out. What's Next for the GOP?

Ok, it's no surprise after the weak third place finish in SC, but Fred Thompson has dropped out of the GOP race for president. What does this mean? Well, this means that the only candidate with bona fide conservative credentials on all the issues is out of the race. So where does this leave us? With four viable candidates, none of which most of us are likely to be happy with.

Thompson's exit comes at a good time for Mitt Romney. With the economy tanking and the Huckabee campaign running on fumes, Mitt's the most likely choice for Fredheads who decide to vote at all. I would guess that a plurality of Thompson supporters will go to Mitt Romney, but not an overwhelming majority.

One surprise about Fred's departure is that he didn't endorse his good friend John Mccain. One would think that since Thompson was one of the few senators to endorse Mccain in 2000, he would almost certainly do it again. What does this say about Mccain's candidacy? Apparently, Mccain is not enough of a true conservative for Thompson to endorse him.

Mike Huckabee could have benefited from Fred leaving, but apparently the campaign is out of money and not advertising at all in Florida because it's too expensive. After his close second finish behind Mccain in SC, I would have thought the Huckster could compete in Florida, I guess I was wrong.

Huckabee didn't help himself with Fred's supporters by essentially blaming Thompson for Huckster's loss in SC, as if Thompson didn't really have a right to be there and should have dropped earlier. I would argue that the opposite is true. Huckster's conservative costume party is what doomed the chances of the only legitimate conservative in the race, Fred Thompson. What comes around goes around.

Anyway, it's now pretty much a three man race. Disaster averted by Huckster's decline and lost opportunity with Fred's departure. So we are left with Mccain, Romney and Giuliani. Also, if Rudy fails to win Florida, it could quickly become a two man race.

In a previous post, I reluctantly endorsed the candidacy of John Mccain as the most "electable" candidate. I'm starting to revisit that opinion. With the trouble in the economy emerging as a primary issue in this campaign, people are going to be looking for someone who can take the lead on that issue.

Mitt Romney looks like the candidate best equipped to speak with authority on and deal with an ailing economy. He could run circles around either Dem candidate on that issue next fall. He is also solid on foreign policy.

Rudy is fine on both those issues as well, the problem is he's pro-choice. I still find it very difficult to support a candidate who is pro the murder of unborn children. If he doesn't see anything wrong with the horrific procedure of abortion, there is something wrong with his judgment.

So now I'm down to Romney vs. Mccain. Neither were my first choice. Both I can live with. We'll see if either is the front-runner after Florida.

Mccain's Narrow Victory in SC Fails to Secure Front Runner Status

Sen John Mccain won a hard-fought victory in South Carolina today, giving him 19 more delegates to the convention and some momentum going into the crucial Florida primary on Jan 29. Mccain had 33% of the vote to Mike Huckabee's 30%. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney battled for third with 16% and 15% respectively.

While it is a big win for Mccain, who needed to prove that he could expand his reach beyond New Hampshire, but it wasn't the margin of victory he needed to clearly establish front-runner status and deliver a knock-out blow to one or two of the other candidates. Former Arkansas Gov Mike Huckabee finished a close second, keeping his candidacy very much alive. Huckabee also polled even with Mccain among Republicans, while Mccain won among independents, again fueling the theory that Mccain can't secure a majority of Republicans in a primary.

Fred Thompson had a very disappointing finish. With all the time and effort spent in this state and the fact that South Carolina should have been a natural fit for him, finishing in a virtual tie for distant third is not a good result. He may decide to continue, but his hopes for raising money and competing effectively on Super Tuesday are very much dimmed.

Mitt Romney's finish is also a disappointment, considering the amount of resources he poured into this state, but he made a wise move after Michigan by lowering expectations in South Carolina and focusing on winning in Nevada. Nevada was not as high profile, by Romney netted at least 17 of 31 delegates, almost equaling the 19 Mccain gained in SC.

The results today mean that, going into Florida on Jan 29, we still have four viable GOP candidates. Mitt Romney has the highest delegate count so far and the most resources to compete in Florida and Super Tuesday. Like many New Yorkers, Rudy has been wintering down in Florida, sitting out the first group of primaries, and waiting for the others to arrive.

Rudy's fortunes hinge on winning in Florida. Florida is a winner take all state and the winner of Florida's 57 delegates will presumably have the momentum going into Super Tuesday. Rudy's been down there campaigning and collecting absentee ballots for weeks, so he should have a big edge. The downside is that if he loses, he is in very bad shape for the Feb 5 showdown.

The latest poll averages in the sunshine state show Mccain, Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee within six points of each other, just outside the margin of error. A surge in momentum by any of the four could carry them to victory.

Economic Stimulus Plan Analysis

The consensus these days among economists is that America is on the brink of or already in a recession. This premise may or may not be true, but the reaction to the possibility of a recession says alot about where our society is today.

First of all, it's no longer acceptable in America to just go through a recession and come out of it hopefully with a strong recovery on the other end. No, we must do something to prevent it before it happens. Of course, the government must be the ones to fix the problem because after all, they are here to take care of us.

What happened to the notion that hard times, or in economic terms, corrections have to happen once in a while. After six years of outstanding growth since our last recession, this economy is probably due for a little downturn, especially in the housing sector.

Talk about a sector that is badly in need of a correction. Housing prices have been skyrocketing out of control since the late nineties. There were some parts of the country that saw real estate gains of over 100% in just two or three years. Anyone with half a clue knew that this pace could not continue. I do believe that long term, real estate will come back, but there are probably a few more "lean" years ahead for this sector.

So the president and congress have bought into the notion that government must do all it can to avoid a recession. Neither wants to be blamed in an election year for neglecting those who are hurting out there, so both are working furiously to put together a deal that both sides can live with.

What I find interesting about the stimulus plan being negotiated is that it is primarily in the form of tax rebates. In other words, temporary, short-term tax cuts. This is remarkable! Apparently, even the Democrats are willing to go along with this plan. Even they acknowledge that tax cuts actually stimulate economic growth, strengthening the economy and increasing receipts to the national treasury.

I remember growing up in the 1970s when we had far worse economic times than now. Inflation, unemployment, and interest rates were all in double digits. At that time, no one ever suggested cutting taxes. It wasn't until Ronald Reagan came along in 1980 and showed us that supply-side economics works.

More than a quarter century later, this is now accepted as conventional wisdom. This is an example of why elections matter and have consequences. The more conservative principles are applied, the more they are proven to be effective.

Romney Scores Big Win in Michigan

Wow! Another twist in the ongoing Republican primary saga. This time, a somewhat unexpected victory for Mitt Romney in Michigan. Although the polls had Romney and Mccain running neck and neck, conventional wisdom had Mccain winning on the strength of independents and Democrats who were allowed to vote in this primary.

Not only did Romney win, but he won decisively. In a five-way race, Romney received roughly 39% of the vote to 30% for Mccain, his closest challenger. This is clearly a missed opportunity for Mccain. He had a chance to boost his momentum from Hew Hampshire and move full steam ahead into South Carolina. As it stands, Mccain is wounded and Mitt Romney is right back in the race.

So how to we explain this turn of events? Well, Romney told Michigan voters what they wanted to hear, that he would somehow bring back those lost jobs in the auto industry and revive Michigan's economy. Mccain decided to stick with his reputation for straight talk and told Michigan those jobs aren't coming back and that Mccain supported increased fuel standards and opposed drilling for oil in Anwar.

Neither of these positions are likely to help the auto industry. Therefore, the voters of Michigan had very little reason to support Mccain. Also,Romney was clearly helped by his name recognition in the state. His father was governor for three terms in the sixties. One last thing that clearly played a role was my endorsement of Mccain on the eve of this primary. Apparently, that put some kind of curse on his campaign.

Going forward, the GOP race is now as wide open as ever. Three candidates now have a major primary victory. There are also three candidates vying for the South Carolina primary. With Mccain and Huckabee void of momentum at the moment and Romney not really competing in SC, there is a big opening for Fred Thompson to jump back into the race. Can he take advantage of it? We'll find out Saturday.

Who is the Most Electable GOP Candidate?

With five viable candidates remaining in the GOP race going into today’s primary in Michigan, I think it’s important to step back and ask ourselves who is the most electable candidate in the general election that we can live with in the fall. I know this may sound like too pragmatic of an approach, but we have no clear front-runner, no one who has excited all parts of the GOP apparatus. The next best thing is to look for the most electable candidate we can live with.

At this point in the race, my favorite candidate is Fred Thompson. He is the most conservative on all issues. Yeah, he may have done some legal work for a pro-choice group that his law firm at the time represented, but he has a solid conservative record while senator.

The problem is that his appeal is very limited. He’s not even gaining traction in states like South Carolina, where he should be a natural fit. This tells me that he is very shortly going to exit this race, barring a stunning turn-around in the SC primary.

My next favorite candidate is Mitt Romney. Mitt has all the right positions, though I still have some questions about his sincerity. In any case, he seems like a likable enough guy, and he is well-funded and well organized. Whatever happens in Michigan, he is able to go the distance.

The problem with Mitt is that he doesn’t really energize people. He may be “acceptable” to all wings of the Republican Party, but very few people are really “passionate” about him. This lack of enthusiasm doesn’t bode well for the general election. He would need to run against Hillary, hoping that the anti-Hillary vote will drive the enthusiasm, to have any chance of winning.

Rudy Guiliani has many good points. I believe that he could win in the fall, especially going up against Hillary, because he would take the fight to her. Rudy is probably the best candidate for the foreign policy conservatives and very good economically as well. The question for Rudy is how many social conservatives will just simply sit this election out if he is the nominee?

I know I personally would vote for him, but many evangelicals wouldn’t. If Obama was the nominee for the Democrats, many evangelicals may vote for him, since there would be no difference in their positions on the life and family issues. Rudy’s chances of success in this scenario would be slim. Therefore, I would not want to take the risk of making him the nominee.

Mike Huckabee is my least favorite of the five contenders. Is he electable? Maybe. He has charm and is very likable. He may very well be able to defeat either Democratic nominee. The problem is it would hardly matter. His positions are so liberal economically and in foreign policy, that he would radically change the face of the Republican Party.

This leaves us with Senator John Mccain. I don’t like this guy much, but he is the most electable candidate that I can live with. He has a consistent pro-life, pro-family record (although he’s never championed any of the social causes). He also is very good on foreign policy. His unwavering support of the troop surge in Iraq while many other Republicans ran for cover says a lot about his character. Like President Bush, he is willing to stand up on principle, regardless of the political price he might pay.

Economically, he is now for the extension of the Bush tax cuts. I’m not sure he’s totally sold on supply-side economics, but I think he is close enough to support. The biggest problem is his support of amnesty for illegal immigrants last year. He now says he will secure the borders first. I will have to give him the benefit of the doubt on that issue.

The clear benefit of Mccain is his appeal to independents. Though he has many conservative positions, independents still like him. The endorsement of Sen Joe Leiberman will help him greatly in the fall. I can see them campaigning together gathering support in the purple and blue states. There is one thing he must do to win, and that is pick a southern conservative to run with and shore up the base. Fred Thompson would be the ideal choice.

So today, for the good of the Republican Party, the conservative movement, and for a victory next fall, I (somewhat reluctantly) endorse the candidacy of Senator John Mccain. I believe that with the right choice of a running mate, he will win next fall and keep America moving (mostly) in the right direction.

Christian Conservatives, don’t be fooled by the Huckster

As I continually survey the current field of candidates to succeed President Bush, I’m still at a loss to find one that embodies all the qualities of a great leader. I’m just like most of the electorate right now, not committed to any candidate. Trying to find the best one to vote for.

As much as I’d like to throw the enormous weight behind this blog toward one of the candidates, I just can’t do it at this point. I haven’t yet seen the person who is a great leader and is electable in this current political climate.

One candidate who is definitely not a good choice is Mike Huckabee. Though he is the most “Christian” of the candidates, the bottom line is he’s just not a conservative. Fred Thompson exposed his liberal agenda during the debate the other night, and Huckabee had very little response, except to say basically that he must be doing something right to get all this criticism.

While that’s a nice one-liner (Huckster’s full of nice one-liners), it doesn’t come close to answering the charges. When questioned by moderator Chris Wallace about the fact that he left Arkansas with higher taxes than when he came in, his response was all about all the roads, bridges, and school he built with the increased revenue. He even took a swipe at Minnesota saying “no bridges have collapsed in Arkansas.” Now, does this sound like a conservative to you?

It gets worse. On foreign policy, let’s just say this guy is a cross between Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter, when he even has any awareness of what is being discussed. Huckster has also bought into the global warming lie. I believe if he were president, he may very well sign the disastrous Kyoto protocol treaty.

I know we say this almost every election cycle, but this election is one of the most important in our time. It’s a dangerous world out there and we can’t afford to make the wrong choice for president. This calls for prayer, wisdom and discernment on the part of Christian conservatives.

Please, I implore you, pray for this election like your life depends on it. Ask the Lord for wisdom and discernment, and don’t fall for the Huckster just because he’s Christian, there are many other issues to consider. I believe when you look at the entire package, while better than Hillary or Obama, Huckster is the worst of the five serious GOP candidates.

Three States Have Spoken, GOP Race Remains Wide Open

Well, John Mccain has completed a remarkable comeback and vaulted himself into serious contention for the GOP nomination. Mitt Romney posted his second second place finish and Mike Huckabee followed his Iowa victory with a third place finish in New Hampshire. So three states have spoken (including Wyoming, where Romney scored a victory), and the state of the GOP race remains as wide open as before the Iowa caucuses.

Let’s look at the path to the GOP nomination for each candidate. John Mccain should have some good momentum coming out of New Hampshire. He will now slug it out with Mitt Romney in Michigan. A win there could give him continued momentum to compete with Huckabee and Thompson in South Carolina. A strong second place or victory in South Carolina should give him the funding and momentum to take on Rudy in Florida and Super Tuesday and secure enough delegates to win the nomination.

Mitt Romney has the money and organization to go the distance no matter what the outcome of Michigan, but he can really use a win there. A win in Michigan, where he grew up and his father was governor, would revive his campaign and possibly slow Mccain’s momentum coming out of New Hampshire. From there, he doesn’t look too strong in South Carolina, but can go on to challenge Rudy in Florida and Super Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee had a nice third place showing in New Hampshire, which should keep his campaign rolling and money flowing in. He now focuses on trying to win South Carolina, which will be strongly contested by Fred Thompson and perhaps John Mccain. A win in South Carolina could give him enough strength to win Florida, where he has polled close to Rudy, then go on to capture a majority of the southern states and enough delegates for the nomination. A big factor for the Huckabee campaign is will his money hold up? He may need a few more Hollywood stars like Chuck Norris to contribute.

Rudy Giuliani’s lay low till Florida strategy is either pure genius or pure stupidity. At this point, it doesn’t look so good as he seems to be off the radar map. He hopes to reemerge in Florida with the rest of the candidates so battle-ridden that he can win Florida, dominate Super Tuesday and secure a majority of delegates for the nomination.

Fred Thompson’s strategy is simple: win South Carolina. A couple days ago, he embarked on an 11 day bus tour of the state. He is making his last stand there, figuring that the people of South Carolina should be most receptive to his conservative message. He needs a decisive win in South Carolina, followed by a win in Florida and a weakened Huckabee. Then he can try to capture most of the South on Super Tuesday.

So, which of the five is in the best position to win the GOP nomination? Well, conventional wisdom would say that Mccain and Huckabee are running the strongest right now, and Fred Thompson needs a miracle in South Carolina to stay in the race. The one thing we have learned this year about conventional wisdom is that it’s almost guaranteed to be proven wrong. At this point, it’s about as important as the price of rice in the Philippines, which is not important at all unless you live there.

Hillary Not Dead Yet

As I write this, the New Hampshire returns are coming in. The Republican side is already decided, with John Mccain the projected winner by about a seven to ten point margin. No big surprise there. The big surprise is on the Democratic side, where Hillary Clinton is clinging to a 2 point lead with 50% of precincts reporting. Most insiders believe she will hang on and win by a point or two.

These results are absolutely stunning! Every Democratic poll going into this primary had Barack Obama running away with this. Some had him up as much as 15 points! The fact that Hillary has apparently rallied to pull out a tight win here is amazing.

As I wrote earlier today, Hillary was in real trouble if she lost tonight. I also had a funny feeling it couldn't be this easy to get rid of the Clinton machine. Tonight, my suspicions are being confirmed. Hillary is still a formidable force. She has a well-funded, well-oiled machine. If the results tonight hold and Hillary wins New Hampshire, she may emerge as the front runner again.

Clinton on the ropes in New Hampshire

Could it be this easy? One bad night in Iowa and another in New Hampshire to knock out the "inevitable" Democratic candidate? How is this possible? How did this happen? Just a couple months ago, we were all assuming that there was no way to stop the Clinton machine. Now, all of a sudden, she is on the verge of suffering a second nearly fatal blow to her candidacy.

When you look closely at the candidate Hillary Clinton, it's not too hard to understand why she would be having trouble against someone like Barack Obama. It's very simple, really, she's just not likable! She comes across as a phony and she can't pull it off the way her husband could. I'm just surprised that apparently enough Democrats have figured this out as well, choosing to go with the fresh new face of "hope and opportunity."

I have to admit, part of me is a little disappointed that Hillary's campaign seems to be in free-fall. I was looking forward to the Republican nominee beating her this fall and putting a final nail into the Clinton machine while retaining the White House for the GOP. While the "nail" may be coming sooner than expected, the GOP chances of keeping the presidency are far worse going up against Obama.

Unlike Clinton, Obama is a very likable candidate with a positive message and a great delivery to the message. He excites alot of young people who are yearning for a change in America. He also seems to have honor and integrity and, even though he would be the first African-American president, he doesn't wear his race on his sleeve.

The GOP nominee is going to face an uphill battle against Obama. There wont be this evil Hillary figure to motivate the base to come out and vote. The GOP candidate is going to have to be a likable and credible candidate that can beat Obama on the issues.

As for Hillary, I wouldn't totally count her out just yet. This has been a crazy presidential primary already, with many surprises. The Clinton machine has been preparing for eight years for this chance to get back into power. They're not going to surrender to a U.S. senator with two years of national political experience without a fight. In order for Clinton to recover, they need to start by winning tonight in New Hampshire.

Iowa Analysis: Huckabee Win Big Blow to Romney Campaign

The results of the Iowa caucuses are finally in and the two winners are Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama. Both candidates won by decisive margins, beating the second place finisher by nearly 10 points. These results are not big surprises given the most recent polls, but would have been almost unthinkable two months ago.

Obviously, these victories are big boosts to both candidates. The Obama campaign now has the momentum going into New Hampshire, where a victory could put him very close to knocking out the Clinton machine. The Obama victory could also take whatever wind there was out of the Edwards campaign, who hoped to shock the political world with a victory in Iowa.

On the Republican side, things seem more muddled and complicated than ever. While the victory clearly helps the Huckabee campaign, it is unclear if he can sustain this momentum beyond New Hampshire. The Huckabee campaign is very low on money and not likely to do very well in New Hampshire. After Iowa stops being the story and he is no longer the latest victor, it’s very unclear if he can go much further.

The biggest story on the Republican side is the damage this does to the Romney campaign. After all the months of campaigning and the resources poured into Iowa, they lost by nine percentage points. In a five way race, that’s almost a blowout. Romney is now under enormous pressure to get it together and come back to win New Hampshire, where he will face a stiff challenge from John Mccain.

The question for Republicans is, if Romney is knocked out of the race, who is going to ascend as the front-runner? It seems unlikely to be Huckabee for reasons already mentioned. That leaves, Mccain, Guliani and Thompson. Mccain is fairly low on funds and doesn’t seem to have much support beyond New Hampshire. Mccain is very unpopular with a lot of the base, which will make his candidacy an uphill battle.

Guliani is barely even competing until the Florida primary, which is a very risky strategy, not to mention his social liberalism, which is always a tough sell to the party base. Fred Thompson’s tie for third place in Iowa didn’t do a lot to ignite his campaign. He could still come back to fill the vacuum if everyone else falters, but at this point he needs to show that he really wants the job before people rally behind him.

In the end, the Iowa caucus may not have radically changed the Republican race. It’s a very big blow to Romney, but because there is no other emergent candidate and because Romney has the organization to recover, he could still come back to be the nominee. Stay tuned, it’s gonna be an interesting winter.

Finally, The Iowa Caucus is almost over!

We are finally on the eve of the Iowa caucuses and thus the real beginning of the 2008 presidential primary. For a while, it seemed like it would never get here. I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of all the hype and build-up. I just want to get them over with and get this primary going.

To be sure, the Iowa caucuses definitely matter, a lot. The winner of this event has a good chance to become the party’s nominee for president, so it is definitely important to the candidates (By the way, this calls into question Rudy’s strategy of basically sitting this one out). I just think that there’s not a lot else to say going into this primary.

We know that there are essentially 5 candidates on the Republican side and 3 on the Democratic side that are still contending for the nomination. We also know that Romney and Huckabee are the favorites to win on the Republican side, while any of the top 3 could win on the Democratic side.

What we don’t know is how these results will affect the rest of the presidential primaries. No matter how much the so-called experts claim to know the night before, the days after will usually prove that they really didn’t know that much at all, they were just looking for something new to say.

As for me, I have no predictions on who will win this first primary. I ‘feel’ like the two winners will be Romney and Edwards, but I don’t have any solid data to back that up. How will these results affect the rest of the race, who knows. It depends a lot on how things are reported and how the candidates spin their results.

Until then, I am just grateful that this primary is almost over. It’s gone on for almost a year now and many candidates have practically put up second residences in the state. Finally, we can move on to New Hampshire and the rest of the states. I believe the people of Iowa will also be very thankful when this is over.