Economic Stimulus Plan Analysis

The consensus these days among economists is that America is on the brink of or already in a recession. This premise may or may not be true, but the reaction to the possibility of a recession says alot about where our society is today.

First of all, it's no longer acceptable in America to just go through a recession and come out of it hopefully with a strong recovery on the other end. No, we must do something to prevent it before it happens. Of course, the government must be the ones to fix the problem because after all, they are here to take care of us.

What happened to the notion that hard times, or in economic terms, corrections have to happen once in a while. After six years of outstanding growth since our last recession, this economy is probably due for a little downturn, especially in the housing sector.

Talk about a sector that is badly in need of a correction. Housing prices have been skyrocketing out of control since the late nineties. There were some parts of the country that saw real estate gains of over 100% in just two or three years. Anyone with half a clue knew that this pace could not continue. I do believe that long term, real estate will come back, but there are probably a few more "lean" years ahead for this sector.

So the president and congress have bought into the notion that government must do all it can to avoid a recession. Neither wants to be blamed in an election year for neglecting those who are hurting out there, so both are working furiously to put together a deal that both sides can live with.

What I find interesting about the stimulus plan being negotiated is that it is primarily in the form of tax rebates. In other words, temporary, short-term tax cuts. This is remarkable! Apparently, even the Democrats are willing to go along with this plan. Even they acknowledge that tax cuts actually stimulate economic growth, strengthening the economy and increasing receipts to the national treasury.

I remember growing up in the 1970s when we had far worse economic times than now. Inflation, unemployment, and interest rates were all in double digits. At that time, no one ever suggested cutting taxes. It wasn't until Ronald Reagan came along in 1980 and showed us that supply-side economics works.

More than a quarter century later, this is now accepted as conventional wisdom. This is an example of why elections matter and have consequences. The more conservative principles are applied, the more they are proven to be effective.

Romney Scores Big Win in Michigan

Wow! Another twist in the ongoing Republican primary saga. This time, a somewhat unexpected victory for Mitt Romney in Michigan. Although the polls had Romney and Mccain running neck and neck, conventional wisdom had Mccain winning on the strength of independents and Democrats who were allowed to vote in this primary.

Not only did Romney win, but he won decisively. In a five-way race, Romney received roughly 39% of the vote to 30% for Mccain, his closest challenger. This is clearly a missed opportunity for Mccain. He had a chance to boost his momentum from Hew Hampshire and move full steam ahead into South Carolina. As it stands, Mccain is wounded and Mitt Romney is right back in the race.

So how to we explain this turn of events? Well, Romney told Michigan voters what they wanted to hear, that he would somehow bring back those lost jobs in the auto industry and revive Michigan's economy. Mccain decided to stick with his reputation for straight talk and told Michigan those jobs aren't coming back and that Mccain supported increased fuel standards and opposed drilling for oil in Anwar.

Neither of these positions are likely to help the auto industry. Therefore, the voters of Michigan had very little reason to support Mccain. Also,Romney was clearly helped by his name recognition in the state. His father was governor for three terms in the sixties. One last thing that clearly played a role was my endorsement of Mccain on the eve of this primary. Apparently, that put some kind of curse on his campaign.

Going forward, the GOP race is now as wide open as ever. Three candidates now have a major primary victory. There are also three candidates vying for the South Carolina primary. With Mccain and Huckabee void of momentum at the moment and Romney not really competing in SC, there is a big opening for Fred Thompson to jump back into the race. Can he take advantage of it? We'll find out Saturday.

Who is the Most Electable GOP Candidate?

With five viable candidates remaining in the GOP race going into today’s primary in Michigan, I think it’s important to step back and ask ourselves who is the most electable candidate in the general election that we can live with in the fall. I know this may sound like too pragmatic of an approach, but we have no clear front-runner, no one who has excited all parts of the GOP apparatus. The next best thing is to look for the most electable candidate we can live with.

At this point in the race, my favorite candidate is Fred Thompson. He is the most conservative on all issues. Yeah, he may have done some legal work for a pro-choice group that his law firm at the time represented, but he has a solid conservative record while senator.

The problem is that his appeal is very limited. He’s not even gaining traction in states like South Carolina, where he should be a natural fit. This tells me that he is very shortly going to exit this race, barring a stunning turn-around in the SC primary.

My next favorite candidate is Mitt Romney. Mitt has all the right positions, though I still have some questions about his sincerity. In any case, he seems like a likable enough guy, and he is well-funded and well organized. Whatever happens in Michigan, he is able to go the distance.

The problem with Mitt is that he doesn’t really energize people. He may be “acceptable” to all wings of the Republican Party, but very few people are really “passionate” about him. This lack of enthusiasm doesn’t bode well for the general election. He would need to run against Hillary, hoping that the anti-Hillary vote will drive the enthusiasm, to have any chance of winning.

Rudy Guiliani has many good points. I believe that he could win in the fall, especially going up against Hillary, because he would take the fight to her. Rudy is probably the best candidate for the foreign policy conservatives and very good economically as well. The question for Rudy is how many social conservatives will just simply sit this election out if he is the nominee?

I know I personally would vote for him, but many evangelicals wouldn’t. If Obama was the nominee for the Democrats, many evangelicals may vote for him, since there would be no difference in their positions on the life and family issues. Rudy’s chances of success in this scenario would be slim. Therefore, I would not want to take the risk of making him the nominee.

Mike Huckabee is my least favorite of the five contenders. Is he electable? Maybe. He has charm and is very likable. He may very well be able to defeat either Democratic nominee. The problem is it would hardly matter. His positions are so liberal economically and in foreign policy, that he would radically change the face of the Republican Party.

This leaves us with Senator John Mccain. I don’t like this guy much, but he is the most electable candidate that I can live with. He has a consistent pro-life, pro-family record (although he’s never championed any of the social causes). He also is very good on foreign policy. His unwavering support of the troop surge in Iraq while many other Republicans ran for cover says a lot about his character. Like President Bush, he is willing to stand up on principle, regardless of the political price he might pay.

Economically, he is now for the extension of the Bush tax cuts. I’m not sure he’s totally sold on supply-side economics, but I think he is close enough to support. The biggest problem is his support of amnesty for illegal immigrants last year. He now says he will secure the borders first. I will have to give him the benefit of the doubt on that issue.

The clear benefit of Mccain is his appeal to independents. Though he has many conservative positions, independents still like him. The endorsement of Sen Joe Leiberman will help him greatly in the fall. I can see them campaigning together gathering support in the purple and blue states. There is one thing he must do to win, and that is pick a southern conservative to run with and shore up the base. Fred Thompson would be the ideal choice.

So today, for the good of the Republican Party, the conservative movement, and for a victory next fall, I (somewhat reluctantly) endorse the candidacy of Senator John Mccain. I believe that with the right choice of a running mate, he will win next fall and keep America moving (mostly) in the right direction.

Christian Conservatives, don’t be fooled by the Huckster

As I continually survey the current field of candidates to succeed President Bush, I’m still at a loss to find one that embodies all the qualities of a great leader. I’m just like most of the electorate right now, not committed to any candidate. Trying to find the best one to vote for.

As much as I’d like to throw the enormous weight behind this blog toward one of the candidates, I just can’t do it at this point. I haven’t yet seen the person who is a great leader and is electable in this current political climate.

One candidate who is definitely not a good choice is Mike Huckabee. Though he is the most “Christian” of the candidates, the bottom line is he’s just not a conservative. Fred Thompson exposed his liberal agenda during the debate the other night, and Huckabee had very little response, except to say basically that he must be doing something right to get all this criticism.

While that’s a nice one-liner (Huckster’s full of nice one-liners), it doesn’t come close to answering the charges. When questioned by moderator Chris Wallace about the fact that he left Arkansas with higher taxes than when he came in, his response was all about all the roads, bridges, and school he built with the increased revenue. He even took a swipe at Minnesota saying “no bridges have collapsed in Arkansas.” Now, does this sound like a conservative to you?

It gets worse. On foreign policy, let’s just say this guy is a cross between Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter, when he even has any awareness of what is being discussed. Huckster has also bought into the global warming lie. I believe if he were president, he may very well sign the disastrous Kyoto protocol treaty.

I know we say this almost every election cycle, but this election is one of the most important in our time. It’s a dangerous world out there and we can’t afford to make the wrong choice for president. This calls for prayer, wisdom and discernment on the part of Christian conservatives.

Please, I implore you, pray for this election like your life depends on it. Ask the Lord for wisdom and discernment, and don’t fall for the Huckster just because he’s Christian, there are many other issues to consider. I believe when you look at the entire package, while better than Hillary or Obama, Huckster is the worst of the five serious GOP candidates.

Three States Have Spoken, GOP Race Remains Wide Open

Well, John Mccain has completed a remarkable comeback and vaulted himself into serious contention for the GOP nomination. Mitt Romney posted his second second place finish and Mike Huckabee followed his Iowa victory with a third place finish in New Hampshire. So three states have spoken (including Wyoming, where Romney scored a victory), and the state of the GOP race remains as wide open as before the Iowa caucuses.

Let’s look at the path to the GOP nomination for each candidate. John Mccain should have some good momentum coming out of New Hampshire. He will now slug it out with Mitt Romney in Michigan. A win there could give him continued momentum to compete with Huckabee and Thompson in South Carolina. A strong second place or victory in South Carolina should give him the funding and momentum to take on Rudy in Florida and Super Tuesday and secure enough delegates to win the nomination.

Mitt Romney has the money and organization to go the distance no matter what the outcome of Michigan, but he can really use a win there. A win in Michigan, where he grew up and his father was governor, would revive his campaign and possibly slow Mccain’s momentum coming out of New Hampshire. From there, he doesn’t look too strong in South Carolina, but can go on to challenge Rudy in Florida and Super Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee had a nice third place showing in New Hampshire, which should keep his campaign rolling and money flowing in. He now focuses on trying to win South Carolina, which will be strongly contested by Fred Thompson and perhaps John Mccain. A win in South Carolina could give him enough strength to win Florida, where he has polled close to Rudy, then go on to capture a majority of the southern states and enough delegates for the nomination. A big factor for the Huckabee campaign is will his money hold up? He may need a few more Hollywood stars like Chuck Norris to contribute.

Rudy Giuliani’s lay low till Florida strategy is either pure genius or pure stupidity. At this point, it doesn’t look so good as he seems to be off the radar map. He hopes to reemerge in Florida with the rest of the candidates so battle-ridden that he can win Florida, dominate Super Tuesday and secure a majority of delegates for the nomination.

Fred Thompson’s strategy is simple: win South Carolina. A couple days ago, he embarked on an 11 day bus tour of the state. He is making his last stand there, figuring that the people of South Carolina should be most receptive to his conservative message. He needs a decisive win in South Carolina, followed by a win in Florida and a weakened Huckabee. Then he can try to capture most of the South on Super Tuesday.

So, which of the five is in the best position to win the GOP nomination? Well, conventional wisdom would say that Mccain and Huckabee are running the strongest right now, and Fred Thompson needs a miracle in South Carolina to stay in the race. The one thing we have learned this year about conventional wisdom is that it’s almost guaranteed to be proven wrong. At this point, it’s about as important as the price of rice in the Philippines, which is not important at all unless you live there.

Hillary Not Dead Yet

As I write this, the New Hampshire returns are coming in. The Republican side is already decided, with John Mccain the projected winner by about a seven to ten point margin. No big surprise there. The big surprise is on the Democratic side, where Hillary Clinton is clinging to a 2 point lead with 50% of precincts reporting. Most insiders believe she will hang on and win by a point or two.

These results are absolutely stunning! Every Democratic poll going into this primary had Barack Obama running away with this. Some had him up as much as 15 points! The fact that Hillary has apparently rallied to pull out a tight win here is amazing.

As I wrote earlier today, Hillary was in real trouble if she lost tonight. I also had a funny feeling it couldn't be this easy to get rid of the Clinton machine. Tonight, my suspicions are being confirmed. Hillary is still a formidable force. She has a well-funded, well-oiled machine. If the results tonight hold and Hillary wins New Hampshire, she may emerge as the front runner again.

Clinton on the ropes in New Hampshire

Could it be this easy? One bad night in Iowa and another in New Hampshire to knock out the "inevitable" Democratic candidate? How is this possible? How did this happen? Just a couple months ago, we were all assuming that there was no way to stop the Clinton machine. Now, all of a sudden, she is on the verge of suffering a second nearly fatal blow to her candidacy.

When you look closely at the candidate Hillary Clinton, it's not too hard to understand why she would be having trouble against someone like Barack Obama. It's very simple, really, she's just not likable! She comes across as a phony and she can't pull it off the way her husband could. I'm just surprised that apparently enough Democrats have figured this out as well, choosing to go with the fresh new face of "hope and opportunity."

I have to admit, part of me is a little disappointed that Hillary's campaign seems to be in free-fall. I was looking forward to the Republican nominee beating her this fall and putting a final nail into the Clinton machine while retaining the White House for the GOP. While the "nail" may be coming sooner than expected, the GOP chances of keeping the presidency are far worse going up against Obama.

Unlike Clinton, Obama is a very likable candidate with a positive message and a great delivery to the message. He excites alot of young people who are yearning for a change in America. He also seems to have honor and integrity and, even though he would be the first African-American president, he doesn't wear his race on his sleeve.

The GOP nominee is going to face an uphill battle against Obama. There wont be this evil Hillary figure to motivate the base to come out and vote. The GOP candidate is going to have to be a likable and credible candidate that can beat Obama on the issues.

As for Hillary, I wouldn't totally count her out just yet. This has been a crazy presidential primary already, with many surprises. The Clinton machine has been preparing for eight years for this chance to get back into power. They're not going to surrender to a U.S. senator with two years of national political experience without a fight. In order for Clinton to recover, they need to start by winning tonight in New Hampshire.