Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Fred's Out. What's Next for the GOP?

Ok, it's no surprise after the weak third place finish in SC, but Fred Thompson has dropped out of the GOP race for president. What does this mean? Well, this means that the only candidate with bona fide conservative credentials on all the issues is out of the race. So where does this leave us? With four viable candidates, none of which most of us are likely to be happy with.

Thompson's exit comes at a good time for Mitt Romney. With the economy tanking and the Huckabee campaign running on fumes, Mitt's the most likely choice for Fredheads who decide to vote at all. I would guess that a plurality of Thompson supporters will go to Mitt Romney, but not an overwhelming majority.

One surprise about Fred's departure is that he didn't endorse his good friend John Mccain. One would think that since Thompson was one of the few senators to endorse Mccain in 2000, he would almost certainly do it again. What does this say about Mccain's candidacy? Apparently, Mccain is not enough of a true conservative for Thompson to endorse him.

Mike Huckabee could have benefited from Fred leaving, but apparently the campaign is out of money and not advertising at all in Florida because it's too expensive. After his close second finish behind Mccain in SC, I would have thought the Huckster could compete in Florida, I guess I was wrong.

Huckabee didn't help himself with Fred's supporters by essentially blaming Thompson for Huckster's loss in SC, as if Thompson didn't really have a right to be there and should have dropped earlier. I would argue that the opposite is true. Huckster's conservative costume party is what doomed the chances of the only legitimate conservative in the race, Fred Thompson. What comes around goes around.

Anyway, it's now pretty much a three man race. Disaster averted by Huckster's decline and lost opportunity with Fred's departure. So we are left with Mccain, Romney and Giuliani. Also, if Rudy fails to win Florida, it could quickly become a two man race.

In a previous post, I reluctantly endorsed the candidacy of John Mccain as the most "electable" candidate. I'm starting to revisit that opinion. With the trouble in the economy emerging as a primary issue in this campaign, people are going to be looking for someone who can take the lead on that issue.

Mitt Romney looks like the candidate best equipped to speak with authority on and deal with an ailing economy. He could run circles around either Dem candidate on that issue next fall. He is also solid on foreign policy.

Rudy is fine on both those issues as well, the problem is he's pro-choice. I still find it very difficult to support a candidate who is pro the murder of unborn children. If he doesn't see anything wrong with the horrific procedure of abortion, there is something wrong with his judgment.

So now I'm down to Romney vs. Mccain. Neither were my first choice. Both I can live with. We'll see if either is the front-runner after Florida.

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