Three States Have Spoken, GOP Race Remains Wide Open

Well, John Mccain has completed a remarkable comeback and vaulted himself into serious contention for the GOP nomination. Mitt Romney posted his second second place finish and Mike Huckabee followed his Iowa victory with a third place finish in New Hampshire. So three states have spoken (including Wyoming, where Romney scored a victory), and the state of the GOP race remains as wide open as before the Iowa caucuses.

Let’s look at the path to the GOP nomination for each candidate. John Mccain should have some good momentum coming out of New Hampshire. He will now slug it out with Mitt Romney in Michigan. A win there could give him continued momentum to compete with Huckabee and Thompson in South Carolina. A strong second place or victory in South Carolina should give him the funding and momentum to take on Rudy in Florida and Super Tuesday and secure enough delegates to win the nomination.

Mitt Romney has the money and organization to go the distance no matter what the outcome of Michigan, but he can really use a win there. A win in Michigan, where he grew up and his father was governor, would revive his campaign and possibly slow Mccain’s momentum coming out of New Hampshire. From there, he doesn’t look too strong in South Carolina, but can go on to challenge Rudy in Florida and Super Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee had a nice third place showing in New Hampshire, which should keep his campaign rolling and money flowing in. He now focuses on trying to win South Carolina, which will be strongly contested by Fred Thompson and perhaps John Mccain. A win in South Carolina could give him enough strength to win Florida, where he has polled close to Rudy, then go on to capture a majority of the southern states and enough delegates for the nomination. A big factor for the Huckabee campaign is will his money hold up? He may need a few more Hollywood stars like Chuck Norris to contribute.

Rudy Giuliani’s lay low till Florida strategy is either pure genius or pure stupidity. At this point, it doesn’t look so good as he seems to be off the radar map. He hopes to reemerge in Florida with the rest of the candidates so battle-ridden that he can win Florida, dominate Super Tuesday and secure a majority of delegates for the nomination.

Fred Thompson’s strategy is simple: win South Carolina. A couple days ago, he embarked on an 11 day bus tour of the state. He is making his last stand there, figuring that the people of South Carolina should be most receptive to his conservative message. He needs a decisive win in South Carolina, followed by a win in Florida and a weakened Huckabee. Then he can try to capture most of the South on Super Tuesday.

So, which of the five is in the best position to win the GOP nomination? Well, conventional wisdom would say that Mccain and Huckabee are running the strongest right now, and Fred Thompson needs a miracle in South Carolina to stay in the race. The one thing we have learned this year about conventional wisdom is that it’s almost guaranteed to be proven wrong. At this point, it’s about as important as the price of rice in the Philippines, which is not important at all unless you live there.