Sen John Mccain won a hard-fought victory in South Carolina today, giving him 19 more delegates to the convention and some momentum going into the crucial Florida primary on Jan 29. Mccain had 33% of the vote to Mike Huckabee's 30%. Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney battled for third with 16% and 15% respectively.
While it is a big win for Mccain, who needed to prove that he could expand his reach beyond New Hampshire, but it wasn't the margin of victory he needed to clearly establish front-runner status and deliver a knock-out blow to one or two of the other candidates. Former Arkansas Gov Mike Huckabee finished a close second, keeping his candidacy very much alive. Huckabee also polled even with Mccain among Republicans, while Mccain won among independents, again fueling the theory that Mccain can't secure a majority of Republicans in a primary.
Fred Thompson had a very disappointing finish. With all the time and effort spent in this state and the fact that South Carolina should have been a natural fit for him, finishing in a virtual tie for distant third is not a good result. He may decide to continue, but his hopes for raising money and competing effectively on Super Tuesday are very much dimmed.
Mitt Romney's finish is also a disappointment, considering the amount of resources he poured into this state, but he made a wise move after Michigan by lowering expectations in South Carolina and focusing on winning in Nevada. Nevada was not as high profile, by Romney netted at least 17 of 31 delegates, almost equaling the 19 Mccain gained in SC.
The results today mean that, going into Florida on Jan 29, we still have four viable GOP candidates. Mitt Romney has the highest delegate count so far and the most resources to compete in Florida and Super Tuesday. Like many New Yorkers, Rudy has been wintering down in Florida, sitting out the first group of primaries, and waiting for the others to arrive.
Rudy's fortunes hinge on winning in Florida. Florida is a winner take all state and the winner of Florida's 57 delegates will presumably have the momentum going into Super Tuesday. Rudy's been down there campaigning and collecting absentee ballots for weeks, so he should have a big edge. The downside is that if he loses, he is in very bad shape for the Feb 5 showdown.
The latest poll averages in the sunshine state show Mccain, Giuliani, Romney and Huckabee within six points of each other, just outside the margin of error. A surge in momentum by any of the four could carry them to victory.
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