Frontrunner May Finally Emerge after Florida Primary

We're on the eve of the most important primary to date in the GOP field and here's where we stand. In the last week, this has essentially become a two-man race between Sen John Mccain and former Mass Gov Mitt Romney. There are about 9 or 10 polls out there on the Florida race and almost all of them have it within the margin of error. Rudy Giuliani is a distant third and Huckabee right behind him in fourth.

So what does all this mean? Well, it's been very unpredictable so far, so it stands to reason that there will be a few more twists and turns on the road to the nomination. At the very least, the winner of Florida is likely to be the GOP frontrunner going into Super Tuesday. What's unclear is who that person will be.

At this point, if I had to make a prediction, I'd say the likely winner is Romney, because, with the faltering economy, he seems to have the issues on his side. Though Mccain picked up the endorsements of the Florida GOP establishment, I believe he hurt himself by launching a smear on Romney over the weekend, saying that Romney had previously favored timetables for Iraq withdrawal, as the Democrats had. Even many in the "drive-by" media acknowledged that this was a lie.

Mccain's motive was clear; shift the focus off of the economy, his self-admitted weak point, and back onto his strength, which is the war in Iraq, at least among Republicans. He could have honestly said that he was a stronger supporter of the surge than Romney or any other Republican. By trying to smear Romney like this, I think he lost the respect of many who believed he was an honest, straight talker.

I would not count Rudy out yet in this Florida race. He has been there almost 2 months collecting absentee and early ballots. Word is that roughly 1 million Floridians have already voted, and the Giuliani campaign believes they have a significant lead among those that have already cast their ballots. I have serious doubts as to whether he can sustain that lead in the wake of the latest dismal poll numbers, but, stranger things have happened.

I believe the best result at this point would be a Romney victory. I know I've stated that I believed Mccain is the more electable candidate, but his latest antics make him very hard to like. I will vote for him against Hillary or Obama, but I think the best remaining candidate for the future of the conservative movement is Mitt Romney.