Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Romney Scores Big Win in Michigan

Wow! Another twist in the ongoing Republican primary saga. This time, a somewhat unexpected victory for Mitt Romney in Michigan. Although the polls had Romney and Mccain running neck and neck, conventional wisdom had Mccain winning on the strength of independents and Democrats who were allowed to vote in this primary.

Not only did Romney win, but he won decisively. In a five-way race, Romney received roughly 39% of the vote to 30% for Mccain, his closest challenger. This is clearly a missed opportunity for Mccain. He had a chance to boost his momentum from Hew Hampshire and move full steam ahead into South Carolina. As it stands, Mccain is wounded and Mitt Romney is right back in the race.

So how to we explain this turn of events? Well, Romney told Michigan voters what they wanted to hear, that he would somehow bring back those lost jobs in the auto industry and revive Michigan's economy. Mccain decided to stick with his reputation for straight talk and told Michigan those jobs aren't coming back and that Mccain supported increased fuel standards and opposed drilling for oil in Anwar.

Neither of these positions are likely to help the auto industry. Therefore, the voters of Michigan had very little reason to support Mccain. Also,Romney was clearly helped by his name recognition in the state. His father was governor for three terms in the sixties. One last thing that clearly played a role was my endorsement of Mccain on the eve of this primary. Apparently, that put some kind of curse on his campaign.

Going forward, the GOP race is now as wide open as ever. Three candidates now have a major primary victory. There are also three candidates vying for the South Carolina primary. With Mccain and Huckabee void of momentum at the moment and Romney not really competing in SC, there is a big opening for Fred Thompson to jump back into the race. Can he take advantage of it? We'll find out Saturday.

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