The results of the Iowa caucuses are finally in and the two winners are Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama. Both candidates won by decisive margins, beating the second place finisher by nearly 10 points. These results are not big surprises given the most recent polls, but would have been almost unthinkable two months ago.
Obviously, these victories are big boosts to both candidates. The Obama campaign now has the momentum going into New Hampshire, where a victory could put him very close to knocking out the Clinton machine. The Obama victory could also take whatever wind there was out of the Edwards campaign, who hoped to shock the political world with a victory in Iowa.
On the Republican side, things seem more muddled and complicated than ever. While the victory clearly helps the Huckabee campaign, it is unclear if he can sustain this momentum beyond New Hampshire. The Huckabee campaign is very low on money and not likely to do very well in New Hampshire. After Iowa stops being the story and he is no longer the latest victor, it’s very unclear if he can go much further.
The biggest story on the Republican side is the damage this does to the Romney campaign. After all the months of campaigning and the resources poured into Iowa, they lost by nine percentage points. In a five way race, that’s almost a blowout. Romney is now under enormous pressure to get it together and come back to win New Hampshire, where he will face a stiff challenge from John Mccain.
The question for Republicans is, if Romney is knocked out of the race, who is going to ascend as the front-runner? It seems unlikely to be Huckabee for reasons already mentioned. That leaves, Mccain, Guliani and Thompson. Mccain is fairly low on funds and doesn’t seem to have much support beyond New Hampshire. Mccain is very unpopular with a lot of the base, which will make his candidacy an uphill battle.
Guliani is barely even competing until the Florida primary, which is a very risky strategy, not to mention his social liberalism, which is always a tough sell to the party base. Fred Thompson’s tie for third place in Iowa didn’t do a lot to ignite his campaign. He could still come back to fill the vacuum if everyone else falters, but at this point he needs to show that he really wants the job before people rally behind him.
In the end, the Iowa caucus may not have radically changed the Republican race. It’s a very big blow to Romney, but because there is no other emergent candidate and because Romney has the organization to recover, he could still come back to be the nominee. Stay tuned, it’s gonna be an interesting winter.
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